Old O’Malley used to dispense sage advice from his stoop in Brooklyn. The smoke of cheap cigars and the cracking of the Yankee game on the transistor radio hung heavy in the humid night as O’Malley meted out wisdom like Aristotle under an olive tree. And one nugget that stuck with me through the years goes as follows: “never buy a girl secondhand flowers. The last girl may have enjoyed them, but your girl will just think of them as used up.”
So what does this have to do with investing? Recently, I was talking to someone about a company that was about to go public and they were lamenting the large discount to public comps implied by the bankers’ pricing guidance. Of course, IPO investors crave a first day pop, but the discount seemed to be bigger than they had seen lately. We wondered aloud why that might be? Lackluster aftermarket performance of last year’s IPOs? Higher perceived risk in the economy? Idiosyncratic risks of this company? And so on. This person also talked about how the bankers remarked that some private companies were pretty close to being overvalued relative to public companies, creating an inversion that would make any liquidity efforts tough.